COVID-19 Update # 11 from the AFN Health Director | April 15, 2020
- Published: April 15 2020 14:05
April 15, 2020
Health Director Update #11
NS COVID-19 Projections
Government released COVID-19 projections on April 14, that show how COVID-19 could progress through the province through to June 30 if people continue to follow public health orders to stay home, social distance, limit essential gatherings to no more than five people and practise good hygiene.
Today, Nova Scotia reported 517 positive cases of COVID-19. According to the projections, if Nova Scotia had not put strong public health measures in place, the province could have instead had 943 cases as of today. They also show that if Nova Scotians continue to follow public health orders, there could be 1,453 cases by June 30, but with poor compliance, cases could grow to 6,269 over that time period. It is important to note the numbers are only modelling estimates.
The projections show a flattened peak in total cases in May that continues into June if public health measures continue.
Testing has proven to be effective. The QEII Health Sciences Centre's microbiology lab is operating 24-hours. Nova Scotia is second in Canada in the number of people tested per million.
Other highlights of the projections include:
-- without public health measures, the model projects hospitalizations of COVID-19 cases would peak at about 85 in May then slowly begin to decline. With strongly sticking to public health orders there would be a peak of about 35 in May and then decline throughout June
-- currently, the most cases in the province are in the Dartmouth/southeastern community health network, almost double of nearby Halifax
The pandemic modelling was developed by staff from the Department of Health and Wellness, Nova Scotia Health Authority and IWK Health Centre. Details can be found here: https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/modelling
The full news release is available at: https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20200414003 and in French at: https://novascotia.ca/news/release/?id=20200414004.
To date, Nova Scotia has 16,755 negative test results, 517 positive COVID-19 test results and three deaths. Confirmed cases range in age from under 10 to over 90. Ten individuals are currently in hospital, four of those in ICU. One-hundred and twenty-four individuals have now recovered and their cases of COVID-19 are considered resolved. Cases have been identified in all parts of the province. A map and graphic presentation of the case data is available at https://novascotia.ca/coronavirus/data